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Morrison’s poll bounce: The numbers don’t lie…or do they?

According to a new poll, the Morrison Government has closed the gap and is now trailing the ALP by the slimmest of margins. The problem is that the numbers don’t match the headlines.

 

 

Again, we’re subject to the IPSOS poll Margarita, and again unsure how much salt to place around the rim. Nevertheless, the latest edition reveals that the two-party gap has closed, as the LNP now trails Labor by just 49-51%, compared with 46-54% in December.

The poll (reported in the Australian Financial Review and other Nine newspaper)s, was taken between Wednesday and Friday, as the debate about the legislation to facilitate medical transfers was at its gaudy, furious zenith.

For those on the Liberal side of the argument, this the results would surely be worth an awkward dad-grade high five, as they’re clearly hoping their renewal of the boat people angle will swing public affectations their way, especially they keep plugging the political risk of the ALP supporting the bill that will transport the medically at-risk off Manus and Nauru.

Further crunching the numbers,  Labor’s primary vote was 33%, down 4 points; the Coalition was on 38%, up 2 points. Similarly, Scott Morrison leads Bill Shorten at 48-38 as the preferred main ruler.

Which, considering the week that was, it either makes all the sense or no sense whatsoever. Last week, Morrison re-opened Christmas Island (as a reaction to the above Bill passing) stating that it “will cost us, in the next couple of years, we estimate, half a billion dollars and $1.4 billion over the next four years. Now, I can’t describe to you the fury that is within me that I have to now go spend money on opening a centre that I didn’t need to open a week ago, when the farmers and communities of North Queensland are crying out for our support.”

Linking farmers to asylum seekers is a turn worthy of Katter’s crocodiles.

Similarly, the Morrison government is also facing a serious amount of internet fire, swirling around the $423 million dollar contract awarded to Paladin (a security firm for refugees). Paladin’s address was a ramshackle beach hut, and the money was apparently free of any FOI responsibility, or ministerial oversight. Peter Dutton went the full Schultz and saw/knew/heard nothing at all. The issue will be raised in the Senate Estimates this week.

To cap the week off, a video exists that depicts Scott Morrison as an Emmanuel Goldstein figure, shaking a fist at refugees (in multiple languages) to “make no mistake; if you attempt to come to Australia illegally by boat, you will not succeed. So do not waste your money or risk your life, or anyone else’s life, for nothing.”

Despite this, we find ourselves at this margin. It seems odd, because it doesn’t seem to fit everything else we’ve read. Even the most general sweep of one’s social circle, or a saunter around the warring borders of a Facebook comment box will highlight the obvious, in that the Morrison government is lurching from crisis to crisis: Paladin, the fish kill, the LNP Tinder sex scandal, running down the clock in Question Time to ensure that a vote on a Royal Commission didn’t happen. There’s a lot of speculation on the internet, with many suspecting media collusion, witchcraft, or Rupert Murdoch dragging Bill Shorten after the latter knocked back the former for a dinner date. For my money, it’s one of three things, the public doesn’t equate the shenanigans around Morrison as Morrison’s shenanigans, the fear of the asylum seeker is political plutonium, or the poll is complete tripe.

Either or, but I’m of the mind that we need to transport these polls (and the multitude prior to it) to the largest bin we can find. Maybe only the true political barometer in this fine country is those who are trying to score a quick buck from it.

 

 

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